Discrepancies in Numbers: How many have been killed in Juarez this year? 952? 653? 536?

Note the discrepancies between a Mexican Army report on killings in Juarez from January-June 2012: 952 
And the number provided by the Fiscalia as of June 27: 653
And no resolution of these differing numbers.  Also, as I recall, the total reported by EL DIARIO at the end of June was 536….  The total I reported was about 540.
I have been traveling the past few weeks and not able to research these things, but will attempt to find some more information later this week. If either number reported by the Army or the Fiscalia is true, then the REPORTING of the deaths in Juarez has not been accurate.  That could be the fault of the Fiscalia, the Public Ministry, some other government entity, or the newspaper.  We may never know the real number.  What these disparate reports indicate is that the real numbers are most likely unknown to any government agency responsible for reporting and that the true death toll may never be known.  As with other past reports, when government numbers do appear, they tend to be higher than previous media reports.  Molly

Juárez homicides lowest in 3 years–EPTimes

So far in June, there have been several days with no murders reported, so  the decrease seems to be holding.  I have had trouble keeping the count because El Diario does not give cumulative numbers.  I will try to summarize what I know for June by tomorrow. This article is a good summary of the analysis out there in the press.  Based on INEGI and SNSP reports on TOTAL homicides in Mexico since 2006, I think that we are getting close to a figure of 100,000.

If that is the case, then Juarez accounts for TEN PERCENT of the total for the whole country. And Juarez has about 1.2 million people. The country has about 112 million… So with very rough arithmetic we could say that Juarez has
suffered 10 percent of the homicide deaths in Mexico and in a city that accounts for about 1 percent of the population of the country. molly

8 homicides June 1-4; lawyer kidnapped found dead on Saturday

June 1 passed with a homicide in Juarez. But on Saturday and Sunday, three
people were killed each day. One body found Saturday was later identified
as a lawyer,  Luz Villa, 68. She had been kidnapped several days earlier
and the family had negotiated with the kidnappers on the ransom. The family
also reported the crime to the state authorities. When the kidnappers found
out, they apparently decided to kill her. A sign was left near the body
that said: “for believing in the state authorities…”  “por andar creyendo
a los ministeriales”
I did not see a number for murders yesterday, June 4, but there were at
least 2 killings reported by the Fiscalia. A man was found dead in the
Benito Juarez neighborhood. The body was wrapped in a sheet with a plastic
bag over the head and the body was also partially burned. Another man was
found dead in the  Colonia Urbi Villa del Cedro and it appeared that he had
been killed with a kitchen knife. Also a large rock was found near the body
with blood on it.
There have been at least 8 killings so far in June. By my tally, this comes
to about 499 for 2012 and 10,584 since 2008. molly

Juarez May murder toll: 74..lowest in 49 months

Diario has only a short report online so far today on the total number of
murders in May–74, the smallest number in the past 49 months–that is
going back to early 2008.  I’m still using the total of 122 for January, so
my figures are a little different than the monthly totals in Diario:
January 122
February 82
March 105
April 108
May 74

for a total of 491 so far in 2012. The average number of people killed in
May is down to 2.3. The yearly average is still at 3.2 people killed each
day.

Using these yearly figures:
2008 = 1,623    2009 = 2,754   2010 = 3,622**    2011 = 2,086    2012 = 491
(January – May)

The total number of homicide victims in the city of Juarez is now 10,576
since January 2008. I’m hoping that a fuller report will be in the paper
later today. molly

**Diario reports 3,111. Other media have reported 3,115. One report in
March 2011 from the Fiscalia said that the actual number was 3,900+. I use
the 3,622 number that was reported by a source in the Chihuahua Fiscalia
and pubished in this Reuters article in December 2011.

Juarez May murder toll: 74..lowest in 49 months

Diario has only a short report online so far today on the total number of
murders in May–74, the smallest number in the past 49 months–that is
going back to early 2008.  I’m still using the total of 122 for January, so
my figures are a little different than the monthly totals in Diario:
January 122
February 82
March 105
April 108
May 74

for a total of 491 so far in 2012. The average number of people killed in
May is down to 2.3. The yearly average is still at 3.2 people killed each
day.

Using these yearly figures:
2008 = 1,623    2009 = 2,754   2010 = 3,622**    2011 = 2,086    2012 = 491
(January – May)

The total number of homicide victims in the city of Juarez is now 10,576
since January 2008. I’m hoping that a fuller report will be in the paper
later today. molly

**Diario reports 3,111. Other media have reported 3,115. One report in
March 2011 from the Fiscalia said that the actual number was 3,900+. I use
the 3,622 number that was reported by a source in the Chihuahua Fiscalia
and published in this Reuters article in December 2011.

 

 

 

Mexico’s drug war Storm clouds with silver linings A series of choreographed horrors belies an overall drop in killings–The Economist

Here is another take on the numbers from The Economist… Note that they give a figure of 5,037 murders for the first 4 months of 2012… very close to the estimate made by Walter McKay at: https://sites.google.com/site/policereform/narco-killings  (5,278) Basically, we can see about an average of 1,260 homicides per month… somewhat lower than peak periods in the past few years, but still high. At this rate, the number of murders for the year will be about 15,111—instead of the 20,000+ over the past few years.   Keep in mind that US homicides run about 15,000 per year and have been declining steadily over the past 5 years… And the US has about 3x the population of Mexico. A comparable murder rate in the US would produce 45,000-50,000 murders a year. molly

“The horror diverted attention from a rare drop in Mexico’s overall murder rate. The opening quarter of 2012 saw the first year-on-year fall in killings since the government’s assault on the gangs got going in 2007. The 5,037 murders (which include ordinary killings as well as mafia hits) represented a 7% drop compared with the same period last year, and a 17% decline compared with the worst three months of last summer. The government no longer breaks out mafia-linked murders, but *Reforma*, a newspaper, reckons that so far this year these are 10% down on last year.”

45 homicides in Juarez May 1-14; est. total since January 2008 = 10,546

El Diario posted an article on May 8 saying that the homicide toll in Juarez officially passed 10,000 on May 3 with the death of a man in the Colonia Ampliacion Felipe Angeles… As those who have been with Frontera List for a while know, I’ve said the city reached this milestone a few months ago. Here is the reason for the difference. Diario uses these annual
numbers:
2008 = 1623
2009 = 2754
2010 = 3115 [more accurate number is 3,622]
2011 = 2086

I use the number of 3,622 for 2010. The reason is that several different and much higher numbers have been given by the Fiscalia for that year.  Initially, the number was 3,111. Then in March of 2011, an article appeared using the number of 3,951.

Here is that info originally posted on the Frontera List in March 2011: State data from 2010 in Chihuahua show figures much higher than previously reported: 3,951 homicides in Juarez; 7,209 i the state of  Chihuahua.

> http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/751635.html
> Once homicidios diarios en 2010 en Juárez: Fiscalía
> De acuerdo con estadísticas de la dependencia, el año pasado se
> registraba en todo el estado de Chihuahua casi un asesinato por hora

I believe that the discrepancy is because we are not sure WHICH murders exactly are being counted…ALL homicides (including lesser crimes like negligent homicide or manslaughter), or only homicidios dolosos (aggravated homicides).  Subsequently, a reporter in Juarez who writes for Reuters got a new official figure for Juarez of 3,622 and this number was published in a Reuters story in Dec 2011. See:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/27/us-mexico-ciudadjuarez-viol…
Since that number falls roughly halfway between the low figure of 3,111 and the high figure of 3,951, I think it is probably a better estimate of the actual number.  So based on the annual figures that I use, the cumulative total homicides for Juarez from January 2008 through April 2012 was 10,501.

The monthly totals for 2012 are as follows: Jan 122; Feb 82; March 105;
April 107…

I have just tallied up the numbers for May 1-14 and I come up with a figure of 45 homicides as of yesterday.  Diario reported 2 days with no murders–May 7 and May 10–but by looking at the daily articles and the reports I get from the Fiscalia, I found that one person who was wounded earlier died on May 10. I believe that yesterday, May 14, was the most violent day in May with a total of 8 homicides. So, my new tally for 2012 is 461–an average of 3.41 people per day. Added to the other annual numbers, the total for Juarez since January 2008 is now 10,546. This averages to 6.6 people per day since January 2008.   molly

Eight slain in Juárez over weekend

at least 6 killed this weekend in violenct acts–Ciudad Juarez

Between Saturday and Sunday, there have been at least 6 victims of
homicide. This afternoon a decomposing body was found in El Million, a
village in the Valle de Juarez. Also this afternoon, 2 men were shot and
killed in the Colinas de Juarez neighborhood. A woman died in the hospital
after being shot along with 2 other women on Thursday this week. One woman
died at the scene and another victim was also taken to the hospital and
survived. A man and woman were shot on Saturday night at a party. Armed men
arrived and the man and woman were put against the wall and shot. The man
died at the scene. The woman was taken to hospital and the article says
that her condition is unknown. The body of a man was found in the Colonia
Arroyo Colorado and it appeared that he had been killed by blows to the
head with a rock. Also this morning, the body of a man was found in the
colonia Lino Vargas. the body had stab wounds and bullet wounds and was
wrapped in a black bag.

I will attempt to tally the deaths for April so far tomorrow. Since this is
past the middle of the month, I think that El Diario will produce the
tally.  molly

The Feminicide Debate

Thanks to Alice Driver (frontera-listera) for sending this new article. I
would like to include my own commentary here since I’m quoted in the
article. It may have been true that in the case of the 400+ women killed
between 1993 and 2007, that most of their deaths had to do with their
gender…but as with most murder (and other crime) in Mexico, we really
don’t know because few of the cases are investigated. Of those cases, about
3/4 were determined to be some form of domestic violence and so there is
probably some kind of gender motive behind the killing, but contrary to the
quote from Sergio Gonzalez in the article, there is more to any
relationship than gender and even many domestic disputes that end in
violence against women also involve other motivations. In the same years,
more than 3,500 men were killed…  Since 2008, the percentage of the
victims who are women has averaged between 5 and 12 percent from year to
year. The overall average from 1993-present is about 8.7 percent of the
dead being women.**  And in terms of “being killed because they are women,”
that is not an adequate explanation.

I also think there is evidence that the emphasis on the 8-10 percent of the
victims of violence who are women does distort the reality of the violence.
As a librarian I search academic databases all the time. The other day, I
searched for articles on “violence and poverty and juarez” –this search
yielded very few studies. A search on just the terms “violence and Juarez”
yields several hundred articles and almost all of them are about violence
against women.

The majority of the female victims since 2008 have been killed in the same
circumstances as the men–shot down in the street, in cars, in their
homes–and many women appear to have been killed because of some
involvement in other criminal activity, mainly extortion and drug
dealing…not (in the words of Sergio Gonzalez in the article below) “… for
being women, and they are victims of  masculine violence because they are
women…”   Just a few days ago a case that was reported of two women
accused of kidnapping and murdering another woman. The victim was
apparently killed for taking over some of their retail drug-selling
business. Here is that link:

 Arrestan a dos mujeres acusadas de secuestrar y asesinar a otra

Las acusan de plagiar y asesinar a mujer

**Murders of Women in Juarez 1993-March 2012

1993-2007………………427 (3,538) – 12%

2008 ……………………….87   (1,623) – 5.3%

2009……………………….164 (2,754)—5.9%

2010 ………………………304 (3,622) – 8.3%

2011 …………………….. 196  (2,086) – 9.3%

2012 (as of March 31) ……….38  (309) – 12%

*Women………**…1,216 **( 13,932 total **victims)* – 8.7%

Women = 8.7 percent of total murder victims over the past 18 years

The Feminicide Debate