On the murder rate in Juarez- Norte de Juarez & Insight

This article in Norte de Ciudad Juarez says that the figure of 952 is for the STATE of Chihuahua, not just the city of Juarez.  If the number is really 952 for the state and roughly 540 for the city (as reported by El Diario) then the city still accounts for more than half of all of the murders tallied in Chihuahua. Note also this article in InSight Crime–an analyst reports 510 “organized-crime-related” or “ejecuciones” for Juarez…  It is still very confusing (actually I believe it is impossible) to realistically distinguish between those homicides counted as “organized crime related” vs. other homicides…  The criteria are never clearly stated in any of the sources that report these numbers. The information comes from media accounts in almost all cases, according to the article in Insight… And those reports contain only the most superficial characteristics of the crimes scenes and the killings such as the type of weapon used, the number of people involved, etc. No real investigation is actually completed to determined who killed whom and why.

Note that the analyst’s report used by InSight says that there were “7,022 murders linked to organized crime” from January thru June 2012 in Mexico.  And in a parenthetical note, the report mentions that the SNSP “tallied 8,662 murders nationwide through May, though the June figures have not yet been released.” My estimate for the half-year point for murders nationwide (based on the earlier monthly averages) was about 9,996. But if we take the 8,662 number for Jan-May and divide by 5 we get a monthly average of 1,732 and if we add that to the Jan-May total to estimate the mid-year tally we get a higher estimate of 10,394.  So if the trend continues in the second half of the year, the total homicides in Mexico for 2012 will be about 20,788. This would bring the total number of homicide victims for Calderon’s term to about 110,000.
That said, the trend is that murders are going down in Juarez and yet Juarez is still the city with the highest number of murders. And while the murders are going down in Juarez, they are going up in the smaller city of Chihuahua.


Discrepancies in Numbers: How many have been killed in Juarez this year? 952? 653? 536?

Note the discrepancies between a Mexican Army report on killings in Juarez from January-June 2012: 952 
And the number provided by the Fiscalia as of June 27: 653
And no resolution of these differing numbers.  Also, as I recall, the total reported by EL DIARIO at the end of June was 536….  The total I reported was about 540.
I have been traveling the past few weeks and not able to research these things, but will attempt to find some more information later this week. If either number reported by the Army or the Fiscalia is true, then the REPORTING of the deaths in Juarez has not been accurate.  That could be the fault of the Fiscalia, the Public Ministry, some other government entity, or the newspaper.  We may never know the real number.  What these disparate reports indicate is that the real numbers are most likely unknown to any government agency responsible for reporting and that the true death toll may never be known.  As with other past reports, when government numbers do appear, they tend to be higher than previous media reports.  Molly

49 murders in June in Juarez…lowest since early 2008…total of 536 for the year–El Diario

The month of June ended with 49 murders, the lowest number since the first
months of 2008–the year that the epidemic of violence began in Juarez.  On
10 separate days in June, no murders were recorded. The average number of
murders per day in June was less than two. For the first 6 months of 2012,
there have been 536 murders, an average of 2.9 per day for the year.

Various authorities offer there opinions about the reasons for the lower
number of homicides. For instance, the arrest and detention of more
dangerous criminals involved in extortion and kidnapping…also preventing
prisoners from helping to run gangs from inside the prisons… The Fiscal
also credited “cleansing” operations inside the municipal and state
police–getting rid of police who were actively helping to run the gangs…
A spokesman for an organization of lawyers said that the state and
municipal police may deserve some credit for lowering the rate of violence,
but not the federal police.  He said that the violence started to gradually
decline as soon as the federal forces left the city…

Junio, el mes con menos asesinatos en 4 años

A Google translation is posted below…


June, the month with the fewest murders in four years


The Journal | 30.06.2012 | 23:21

June 2012 closed with an account of 49 murders, which became the month with
fewer cases since the beginning of the escalation of violence in Juarez in

In February 2008 there were 49 executions and also in January of that year
there were 46.

In June 2012, also presented the highest number without violent days, the
documented 10 days in which there were no murders. The date was recorded
more deaths on Friday June 22, with five.

For the IA this reduction has primarily been with the police clearance and
actions taken to undermine the power of operation of kidnappers,
extortionists and car thieves.

On average, during the recently completed 30 days were 1.6 murders per day.
In June 2008 there were 4.7 homicides per day, 8.6 in the same month in
2009, 10.4 in 2010 and 4.9 in June 2011.

In the first six months of 2012 have committed 536 murders, whereas in the
same period in 2011 were committed thousand 114.

The 2011 data reported that in January there had been 222 homicides in
February 231 March 183 April 171 May 151 and June 156.

Official figures for 2012 indicate that this was made in January 118, to
February 81, March 105, were documented for April 108, May 74 and June 49.

Jorge Gonzalez Nicolas, head of the Office of Investigation and Prosecution
of Crime, said that some time has diminished to one of the groups operating
in the city, which has led them to reduce their ability to generate

He said one of the factors that influenced this decline is to combat highly
dangerous inmates who kept advising groups operating in the streets of the
city to continue kidnapping, extorting and stealing cars.

Another factor were the reforms for much higher penalties. He said that
these penalties have the function as well as punish the offender, the
general social prevention for men that offended or who are considered
potential criminals continue to refrain from breaking the law.

He said the judiciary has contributed significantly in this fight to
expedite search warrants in a period no longer than 45 minutes, plus arrest
and detention cases of emergency.

He mentioned that they have secured more than eight thousand vehicles in
which they committed crimes of all kinds, have been arrested 500 kidnappers
and extortionists, secured more than 800 thousand weapons and arrested
individuals was important in the criminal structure.

However, one of the determining factors that undermined criminal groups was
haberles taken from the police who were working for them with the input of
sensitive information they received from the strategic operation against
him, he said.

The power of criminal groups is not based solely on the number of people,
weapons or vehicles, but on the protection and information they receive
from agents who have infiltrated the police forces, he said.

“Having done the clean that were made in the police, the tests of
reliability and control systems that are, were decisive,” he said.

Police said both the City and State were discharged on average 10 per cent
of operational strength, but about those who stayed imposing certain
controls preventing them from working with organized crime.

He said that needs to be done, because there are still extortion, murder
and other crimes that generate high impact mistrust in society.

But he said that in comparison with the figures recorded in 2008, 2009,
2010 and 2011, with these months of 2012, there is a substantial difference.

For the president of the Supervisory Board of the National Confederation of
Lawyers of Mexico, Salvador Urbina Quiroz, decreased the incidence of
homicide has been worn by one of the groups operating in the locality.

This is an important factor, while recognizing the work done by local
authorities, he said.

In this sense it is noteworthy that the recognition is for state and
municipal police, but not for federal, he said.

“Since the time that the federales left, the level of executions began to
decrease gradually in Juarez,” he said.

Urbina Quiroz for June is a historic month for Ciudad Juarez, because it
has a figure rarely seen since the beginning of the wave of violence in
this border.

However, it stressed that low can not be attributed entirely to the
authorities, said that if it were so, then also extortion and auto theft
with violence have registered record numbers.

“We must recognize that both the State and Municipal Police have arrested
people, it’s definitely good news, but with reservations. In five years is
the first time we have a number of deaths so low, “he said.

In May of this year there were 74 murders, including six women, two
children and two policemen. (Staff / The Journal)



14 bodies in Ciudad MAnte, Tamaulipas; 44 murdered in 7 states all across Mexico on Saturday

For the second time in a month, 14 mutilated bodies have been abandoned in
the town of Ciudad Mante in Tamaulipas. Also, according to the story posted
from Cronica, during the wave of violence yesterday in Mexico, at
least 44 people were murdered in the states of Tamaulipas, Veracruz,
Guerrero, Nuevo Leon, Jalisco, Durango and Michoacan. In the Veracruz case,
11 bodies were found in a clandestine grave. The article lists other
incidents. I posted a google translation.

Abandonan camion con 14 cuerpos mutilados en Cd. Mante, Tamaulipas

Fourteen mutilated bodies found outside Mexican supermarket


Violent events in seven states yesterday left a balance of 44 dead

Mar Horacio Ramos, Ignacio Roque and David Madriz Homes | National

24.06.2012 | Creation Time: 23:36:30 | Last Modified: 00:05:45

During a wave of violence yesterday at least 44 people were killed in
separate incidents related to organized crime in Tamaulipas, Veracruz,
Guerrero, Nuevo Leon, Jalisco, Durango and Michoacan.

In Tamaulipas, 14 mutilated bodies appeared inside an abandoned truck in
the parking lot of a shopping mall in Ciudad Mante.

A source from the state attorney explained that at 09:00 hours was reported
the discovery of the bodies along with a narcomensaje in the parking lot of
a supermarket chain located in the center of the municipality.

The prosecution explained that it is 10 bodies of men and four women all
mutilated and a narco message to the Gulf Cartel.

While in the municipality of Lerdo de Tejada, Veracruz, was located a
clandestine grave with eleven human skeletons.

The Secretary of the Navy of Mexico undertook dig up human remains.

Meanwhile, in various municipalities of Guerrero the wave of violence left
seven people killed, five of whom died in shootouts in the municipality of
Apaxtla Castrejon and another died in hospital Teloloapan. In Acapulco, a
shooting left as a result one dead, one wounded and a woman deprived of
their liberty.

In Monterrey, a body was found in a car, while gunmen executed one person
and wounded his nephew left refusing to pay a fee.

In the first event in the center of Monterrey was found a corpse in a
Volkswagen Jetta with the plates FGR-2162.

Moreover, in San Nicolas de los Garza, a man about 60 years old was shot by
an armed, while his nephew aged between 20 and 25 were injured.

In another incident, after close off a motorcycle, the driver of a van was
amagado by armed men who kidnapped him, but managed to escape despite being
tied hand and foot.

Meanwhile, in San Sebastian del Oeste, Jalisco, human remains were found
buried in three mass graves, which correspond to three people.

The bodies were in a ranch called Palmillas de Macedo and experts from the
Jalisco Institute of Forensic Sciences (IJCF) exhumed the skeletal remains.
One of the bodies has a bullet in the head and is maimed.

In Durango, two people were killed and one was injured more seriously, when
staff moved Expert Services on board an official unit Soapy village was
attacked by several gunmen with these results.

Within the limits of the municipalities of Buenavista Tomatlan and
Tepalcatepec in Michoacán five bodies, three men and two women, were found
inside plastic bags.

Alleged gunmen executed the coup de grace to the five people, among which
one of the women was pregnant and was beheaded, and one of the men were
maimed arm. The rest of the bodies were blindfolded and showed signs of

In addition to the bodies found on the bridge of Piedras Blancas, right
next to a grocery store, was found pinned to the chest of one of the women
a message that said: Here we leave a little present gentlemen to see that
it can be since we’re here Mencho and Rafa Álvarez: att 8 CJNG.


Mexico Drug Violence Shows Decline–Wall Street Journal

In this interview with President Calderon, he discusses a slight decline in
violence nation-wide and also a proposal to the US to legalize some
Note this on the official government count:

Mr. Calderón declined to give out a specific figure of drug-related deaths
in the first five months of this year, giving out only the percentage
decline. He said his government will no longer make the figure public after
human-rights groups and victims’ families complained the government was
issuing a verdict on murders before the judicial system. Mexico’s
government uses evidence at the crime scene—such as decapitations or a sign
left by an alleged cartel—to distinguish crimes linked to the drug gangs
from common murders. “We had complaints from human rights groups and
analysts that we were pre-judging cases and victims,” said Mr. Calderón.”I
have given orders to my government that we play by the book on this. Only
after a judge issues a verdict can we include this in an official number,”
Mr. Calderón said.The government hasn’t given out data on drug-related
violence since January, when figures for the first nine months of 2011
showed drug-related murders were still likely on the rise, claiming 12,903
lives during the January-September period – a pace of 16,800 murders for
the year. That compares to 15,273 drug-related murders in 2010.

The WSJ article also cites the Frontera List for the Juarez murders
January-May 2011 and 2012: down from 958 to 491…though these are all
homicides as reported from the Fiscalia, not just “drug-related” homicides.
At least as best as it is possible to tell from what is reported. For what
it is worth, at least three people were murdered today in Juarez–two men
shot to death by a group of three young assassins and early today, the body
of a woman was found wrapped in a blanket.

I will be traveling in the next few days, but I have been trying to keep
track of the daily homicides in Juarez.  I will report back when I have
time to tally things, or, if Diario posts something with a summary…

Juárez homicides lowest in 3 years–EPTimes

So far in June, there have been several days with no murders reported, so  the decrease seems to be holding.  I have had trouble keeping the count because El Diario does not give cumulative numbers.  I will try to summarize what I know for June by tomorrow. This article is a good summary of the analysis out there in the press.  Based on INEGI and SNSP reports on TOTAL homicides in Mexico since 2006, I think that we are getting close to a figure of 100,000.

If that is the case, then Juarez accounts for TEN PERCENT of the total for the whole country. And Juarez has about 1.2 million people. The country has about 112 million… So with very rough arithmetic we could say that Juarez has
suffered 10 percent of the homicide deaths in Mexico and in a city that accounts for about 1 percent of the population of the country. molly

8 homicides June 1-4; lawyer kidnapped found dead on Saturday

June 1 passed with a homicide in Juarez. But on Saturday and Sunday, three
people were killed each day. One body found Saturday was later identified
as a lawyer,  Luz Villa, 68. She had been kidnapped several days earlier
and the family had negotiated with the kidnappers on the ransom. The family
also reported the crime to the state authorities. When the kidnappers found
out, they apparently decided to kill her. A sign was left near the body
that said: “for believing in the state authorities…”  “por andar creyendo
a los ministeriales”
I did not see a number for murders yesterday, June 4, but there were at
least 2 killings reported by the Fiscalia. A man was found dead in the
Benito Juarez neighborhood. The body was wrapped in a sheet with a plastic
bag over the head and the body was also partially burned. Another man was
found dead in the  Colonia Urbi Villa del Cedro and it appeared that he had
been killed with a kitchen knife. Also a large rock was found near the body
with blood on it.
There have been at least 8 killings so far in June. By my tally, this comes
to about 499 for 2012 and 10,584 since 2008. molly