Juarez transformed? Or violence displaced to other areas?

List member Jim Creechan sent me his comment and the article below yesterday. He also posted his comment on the THE CRIME REPORT website.

Posted by James Creechan
Thursday, March 01, 2012 01:31

There is another reason that the crime rate dropped in Ciudad Juarez. Basically, Juarez was a contested plaza for at least 3 cartel factions that relied on shifting alliances with street level thugs and killers. One of the cartels has managed to achieve a temporary dominance of the plaza and this led to the withdrawal and displacement of another: it seems as if the Sinaloa cartel has established its dominance, and Los Zetas have moved elsewhere to the east and central corridors (primarily into the States of Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas). The “pacification” of Juarez is just as likely (or more likely) the result of a “turf-war” victory by the Sinaloa cartel. The “victory” in the streets has allowed the Sinaloa cartel to reallocate its hitmen (la nueva generacion) to be used on other battlefronts in Mexico (primarily to Acapulco and Guerrero, and probably to Guadalajara). Although COMSTAT may be tracking those dips, it can hardly be seen to have caused the drop. Unfortunately, there is an element of hubris in this article when it makes the claim that strategies used in New York were responsible for the violence drop. The drug violence in Mexico is a national phenomenon, and the turf wars are not limited to one city. The violence has simply moved elsewhere. Those who are interested in knowing what is happening and what is going on are advised to look at the bigger picture more accurately tracked by sites such as Walter McKay’s https://sites.google.com/site/policereform/ For those who read Spanish, NEXOS magazine (Feb. 2012) has an article analyzing the trends and shifts in homicide rates that are much more complete than this report. It’s by Eduardo Guerrero Gutierrez (http://www.nexos.com.mx/?P=leerarticulo&Article=2102543) and even if you don’t read Spanish you can make out the homicide data in his graphs and charts.

Inside Criminal Justice

By Joseph J. Kolb