The U.S. sends thousands of deportees each month to Mexico’s most dangerous border areas…WaPo

I am going to nitpick some numbers here… What a surprise! I don’t see any mention of the homicide rate in Ciudad Juarez in this article. Juarez is also a major border city where people are repatriated. And where thousands of migrants and refugees from Central America and other world regions wait to cross the border legally to ask for asylum. According to the numbers reported by the Chihuahua state Fiscalia (and my own tally from local media), there were about 1,250 homicides in Juarez in 2018, an increase from 772 in 2017. To get the murder rate (# of homicides per 100,000) you divide the city’s population (Juarez = about 1.3 million) by 100,000 = 13. Then divide the # of homicides by that number. 1,250 / 13 = 96. So the murder RATE in Juarez last year was 96. For comparison, during the worst year of the hyperviolence in Juarez, the rate was between 200 and 300, so things are not as bad as they were in 2010.

Based on the numbers provided for Reynosa in the WaPo article below, there were 225 homicides in a city of 600,000. So, 225/6 = 37.5. That means the murder rate in Reynosa is 37.5. Thus, Juarez is 2.5 times more violent than Reynosa… Yet according to the article, Reynosa is the most violent city on the border. That is simply not true. Although, it is generally believed that the media in Tamaulipas has been threatened into virtual silence in terms of reporting the criminal violence in the city, so it is possible that the place is more violent than the official numbers indicate.

Facts are difficult to come by on many border issues. I don’t disagree with the main thrust of the article. While Trump and co. holler about the chaos and crisis and disaster on the US side of the border, the real issue of the security crisis on the Mexican side of the border (that primarily affects Mexican citizens and migrants and refugees) is underreported and misunderstood. US border towns, cities and counties experience practically zero cross-border violence. The homicide rate in El Paso is generally one of the lowest in the United States…about 2.5. For other comparisons, Chicago has a murder rate of about 24. St. Louis (one of the most violent cities in the US) has a murder rate of about 60.

I have effectively reached the limit of my mathematical ability. But I think these numbers are important. molly molloy

The U.S. sends thousands of deportees each month to Mexico’s most dangerous border areas

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s