Monthly Archives: January 2018

Mexico to send troops to stem violence after record 25,000 murders…Reuters

I heard this as a lead story in the BBC news headlines last night.  It is especially troubling since a glance at the statistics on homicides for the last 10 years shows sharp increases in murders coinciding with the deployment of the military into the cities and countrysides of Mexico beginning in late 2006 after the election of President Calderon.  I have never seen any evidence that the presence of the Mexican Army and Marines in the so-called “war on drugs” has lead to decreases in violence.

I also note that this article mentions the figure of “25,000 murders” during 2017. Based on the latest data from SESNSP, the total number of murder VICTIMS last year was more than 29,000. Here is a quick explanation of what I think is the issue with these different numbers.
There is a set of statistics from SESNSP that is used by most media and to the best of my knowledge, they report the number of “averiguaciones previas” (basically investigations) for different crimes. That data is reported here and is called Incidencia Delictiva del Fuero Comun
This report has the smaller number. I think that is because what it counts are homicide investigations, basically cases opened up by the different state prosecutors. It does not provide the count of individual victims which can be multiple in one crime investigation.  Here is the actual description from the dataset:

“La incidencia delictiva se refiere a la ocurrencia de presuntos delitos registrados en averiguaciones previas o carpetas de investigación iniciadas, reportadas por las Procuradurías Generales de Justicia y Fiscalías Generales de las 32 entidades federativas, instancias responsables de la veracidad y actualización de los datos.” 

In this report, the total homicide investigations (homicidios dolosos, or intentional homicides) for 2017 are 25,339.

The other report that comes out at the same time is called Informe de Victimas de homicidio, secuestro y extorsion. http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/victimas/Victimas2017_122017.pdf

In this report, the number of victims of homicidio doloso is reported as 29,168.
I think this is the better report to use because the number of victims is more important to know than the number of investigations. A single homicide investigation can have multiple victims and thus I think this report is more useful because what I’m interested in is the death toll from the violence. The SESNSP reports should be taken as preliminary. The INEGI reports generally come out some months later and tend to be different but fairly close to the SESNSP data that come out each month. There are problems with such statistics, but since they have been collected and reported for many years, they can certainly be looked at for comparisons…what trends do they show.  One thing that seems significant this year is how constant the monthly data have been.  No significant drops or increases. Just the steady killing of 2,400 people every month, an average of 80 homicides per day, nationwide.
I posted the numbers with selected data from the report here:

More than 29,000 homicide victims in Mexico in 2017

The Mexican government SESNSP just posted the crime data for December 2017. I use the report entitled: Informe de víctimas de homicidio, secuestro y extorsión 2017

The full report is online here: http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/victimas/Victimas2017_122017.pdf

Below is a quick summary of the homicide data 2007-2017. I attached a file with screen shots from the report. molly

HOMICIDE VICTIMSINMEXICO2007-2017

Summary compiled by Molly Molloy, Latest update January 22, 2018

YEAR #Homicides Rate=#/100,000
2007* 8,867 8
2008 14,006 13
2009 19,803 18
2010 25,757 23
2011 27,213 24
2012 25,967 22
2013 23,063 19
2014 20,010 17
2015 20,525 17
2016 23,953 20
2017 29,168 23**
TOTAL 238,332

The SESNSP REPORTED A TOTAL of 2,575 victims of intentional homicide (homicidios doloso) in December 2017. This brings the total number of homicide victims in 2017 to 29,168. This total represents an average of more than 2,400 victims per month; 80 victims per day. Homicide victims in 2017 surpass the total number of homicide victims (27,213) in 2011, making 2017 the most violent year in recent history in Mexico. The murder rate is the highest since 2011, the slightly lower rate is because of the population increase.

**The murder rate in 2017 is based on the 2016 population estimate for Mexico (via google) of 127.5 million.

If we add the estimate of more than 30,000 people reported missing/disappeared as reported by Mexican government agencies and civic groups, then the number of people killed or disappeared since 2007 is likely greater than 268,000. See:

http://www.univision.com/noticias/desapariciones/una-lista-de-desaparecidos-en-mexico-incluye-por-primera-vez-la-identidad-de-30-000-personas

http://personasdesaparecidas.org.mx/semblanza

Registro Nacional de Datos de Personas Extraviadas o Desaparecidas: https://rnped.segob.gob.mx/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-crime/mexico-enacts-law-to-help-find-thousands-missing-in-gang-violence-idUSKBN1DH07U

*Homicide totals 2007-2016 from INEGI in report released in July 2017. See: http://www.inegi.org.mx/saladeprensa/boletines/2017/homicidios/homicidios2017_07.pdf

**Homicide totals for 2017 from SESNSP:

The latest report covers numbers of victims through December 2017:

http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/victimas/Victimas2017_122017.pdf

The table below provides total homicides reported for the previous four “sexenios” (presidential terms). President Enrique Peña Nieto’s term began in December 2012. Homicides decreased slightly during the first three years of his term, then increased steadily after 2015 (see table above). If the trend continues, EPN’s sexenio (which ends in Dec 2018) will probably be the most violent in terms of total homicides. To more accurately compare these trends over time, it will be necessary to calculate the murder rates (#homicides per 100,000 people) based on the population during each period.

Sexenio Homicides INEGI Homicides per day
Salinas 1989-1994 93,493* 43
Zedillo 1995-2000 80,311 36
Fox 2001-2006 60,162 27
Calderón 2007-2012 121,683 56
Peña Nieto 2013- 2017 116,719** 64

*INEGI homicide data for 1990-1994 plus SINAIS (Sistema Nacional de Informacion de Salud) for 1989.

**2017 data from SESNSP. This figure is an estimate using annual data figures, not monthly.

For an older and more detailed explanation of Mexican homicide statistics during this period of hyperviolence, see:

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-mexican-undead-toward-a-new-history-of-the-%E2%80%9Cdrug-war%E2%80%9D-killing-fields The Mexican Undead: Toward a New History of the “Drug War” Killing Fields

HOMICIDE VICTIMS IN MEXICO 2007- 2017

Summary compiled by Molly Molloy, Latest update January 22, 2018

YEAR #Homicides Rate=#/100,000
2007* 8,867 8
2008 14,006 13
2009 19,803 18
2010 25,757 23
2011 27,213 24
2012 25,967 22
2013 23,063 19
2014 20,010 17
2015 20,525 17
2016 23,953 20
2017 29,168 23**
 TOTAL 238,332  

The SESNSP REPORTED A TOTAL of 2,575 victims of intentional homicide (homicidios doloso) in December 2017. This brings the total number of homicide victims in 2017 to 29,168. This total represents an average of more than 2,400 victims per month; 80 victims per day. Homicide victims in 2017 surpass the total number of homicide victims (27,213) in 2011, making 2017 the most violent year in recent history in Mexico.

**The murder rate in 2017 is based on the 2016 population estimate for Mexico (via google) of 127.5 million.

If we add the estimate of more than 30,000 people reported missing/disappeared as reported by Mexican government agencies and civic groups, then the number of people killed or disappeared since 2007 is likely greater than 268,000. See:

http://www.univision.com/noticias/desapariciones/una-lista-de-desaparecidos-en-mexico-incluye-por-primera-vez-la-identidad-de-30-000-personas

http://personasdesaparecidas.org.mx/semblanza

Registro Nacional de Datos de Personas Extraviadas o Desaparecidas: https://rnped.segob.gob.mx/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-crime/mexico-enacts-law-to-help-find-thousands-missing-in-gang-violence-idUSKBN1DH07U

*Homicide totals 2007-2016 from INEGI in report released in July 2017. See: http://www.inegi.org.mx/saladeprensa/boletines/2017/homicidios/homicidios2017_07.pdf

**Homicide totals for 2017 from SESNSP:

The latest report covers numbers of victims through December 2017:

http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/victimas/Victimas2017_122017.pdf

The table below provides total homicides reported for the previous four “sexenios” (presidential terms). President Enrique Peña Nieto’s term began in December 2012. Homicides decreased slightly during the first three years of his term, then increased steadily after 2015 (see table above). If the trend continues, EPN’s sexenio (which ends in Dec 2018) will probably be the most violent in terms of total homicides. To more accurately compare these trends over time, it will be necessary to calculate the murder rates (#homicides per 100,000 people) based on the population during each period.

Sexenio Homicides INEGI Homicides per day
Salinas 1989-1994 93,493* 43
Zedillo 1995-2000 80,311 36
Fox 2001-2006 60,162 27
Calderón  2007-2012 121,683 56
Peña Nieto 2013- 2017 116,719** 64

*INEGI homicide data for 1990-1994 plus SINAIS (Sistema Nacional de Informacion de Salud) for 1989.

**2017 data from SESNSP. This figure is an estimate using annual data figures, not monthly.

For an older and more detailed explanation of Mexican homicide statistics during this period of hyperviolence, see:

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-mexican-undead-toward-a-new-history-of-the-%E2%80%9Cdrug-war%E2%80%9D-killing-fields     The Mexican Undead: Toward a New History of the “Drug War” Killing Fields

15 killed in Juarez…18 so far in 2018

At least 15 people were killed during Thursday afternoon and evening in Juarez in a series of multiple homicide incidents…  In one of these events, three women were shot to death. One of the victims is reported to be a minor. In all, 18 people have been killed in the first 4 days of 2018. molly

Masacre en Juárez; ejecutan a 13 en dos horas

Racha violenta: matan a 15

Staff/
El Diario de Juárez | Viernes 05 Enero 2018 | 00:01:00 hrs

772 homicides in Juarez in 2017–highest number since 2012

The articles below from El Diario de Juarez summarize the bad news in terms of violence in the city in 2017. There were a total of 88 homicides in December, making the last month the most violent of the year. There were 772 total homicides in 2017–a 43% increase over the number of homicides in 2016.  There are some differences in the numbers that I’ve kept over the years and those published in El Diario. I think this comes from exactly which municipals are included in the counts for each year. A separate article yesterday reported a total of 94 homicides of women in 2017. (Another summary article said 96, so I recorded 95 in my tally). Either number comes out to 12.3 percent of the total victims being women in 2017–this is a significant increase over last year. Still, the average percentage of female homicides (compared to the totals) comes to 9.4 percent from 1993–present.

These numbers will probably be adjusted a few times as generally happens at the end of the year, but the trend will be about the same–significant increases in homicides in Juarez make 2017 the most violent year since 2012. I’ve also posted here the tallies I have, including some variation from those reported in the past two days in El Diario.  molly molloy

Juarez 2017
January 53
February 87
March 68
April 31
May 45
June 83
July 51
August 45
September 74
October 66
November 81
December 88
TOTAL 772
Juarez Homicides by Gender
               Women Total Homicides % female victims
1993 19 123 15
1994 19 234 8
1995 36 294 12
1996 37 253 14
1997 32 260 12
1998 36 242 15
1999 18 176 10
2000 32 250 13
2001 37 247 15
2002 36 276 13
2003 28 205 13
2004 19 202 9
2005 33 207 16
2006 20 253 8
2007 25 320 8
2008 87 1623 6
2009 164 2754 6
2010 304 3622 8
2011 195 2086 9
2012 94 803 12
2013 93 535 17
2014 45 429 10
2015 46 311 15
2016 56 546 10
2017 95 772 12
TOTALS 1606 17023 9.4

Con 88 homicidios, es diciembre el más violento

Luz del Carmen Sosa/
El Diario de Juárez | Martes 02 Enero 2018 | 00:01:00 hrs

Suman 7 mujeres asesinadas en el mes

Staff/
El Diario de Juárez | Domingo 31 Diciembre 2017 | 00:01:00 hrs

Alcanza violencia nivel de hace 5 años

Martín Orquiz/
El Diario de Juárez | Lunes 01 Enero 2018 | 00:01:00 hrs

Family separation at the border…Houston Chronicle

This excellent article presents the cruel reality of family separation now practiced by ICE and CBP with the willing participation of immigration judges.  This family’s experience shows how arbitrary asylum officers can be in a credible fear interview.  One member gets a positive credible fear determination, another with the same story is deemed negative. So much has to do with the situation of the interview… A detained person may not feel free or able to adequately describe what has happened. The document reproduced shows numerous errors of translation or transcription. There is no indication that this family has an advocate who could help to clarify this story or provide documents to corroborate the case.  News articles about the murder in El Salvador would have to be translated into English in order to be accepted as evidence in immigration court. The situation of gangs, military and police violence in El Salvador sounds too chaotic to be true to most Americans…even those officials trained to make these determinations. The mother is criminally charged, separated from her child and depressed. Is it any wonder that she cannot adequately explain the details of her case to a voice on a telephone?  She doesn’t even know where her child is, or if she will be sent back to El Salvador where she has nothing and lose custody of her child forever. Where she may not even survive.
In a legitimate process, the three members of this family would be able to seek asylum together since the dangers they face come from the same facts: the murder of their husband/father; the threats and retributions by both Salvadoran military officials and gangs. A person with expertise would explain the process, would counsel them. Instead, each person faces this confusing legal process alone; the mother is still detained and with a criminal charge in El Paso, she is unlikely to ever qualify for bond. She may not even have an asylum hearing as she did not pass her credible fear interview. In the El Paso immigration court, 98 percent of asylum cases are denied. With the criminal illegal entry charge, she may not even qualify for asylum.
Her adult son who passed his credible fear interview will have an asylum hearing in 2020 and can work. It is unclear if he has representation. A positive credible fear determination does not guarantee that he will be granted asylum. On the interview form (included at the link) the officer finds that there is “NO NEXUS” for his asylum claim… This means that his story does not indicate clear evidence that the persecution he suffered in El Salvador is due to his race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group. However, his story is centered on the fact that his father was a military officer and was murdered by gang members due to actions he took as part of his job. Then the son was targeted and persecuted by both the military and the gangs. It is likely that an asylum attorney could establish the required nexus in this case.
Multiply this story (by hundreds? thousands?) and get an idea of the impact of a system designed to deport as many people as possible and to deny access to people with legitimate asylum claims. Separating families at the border is now deemed a legitimate practice by DHS to deter people from Central America trying to reach safety…many of them children. Instead of traveling with a parent, it is likely that many more will be handed over to human smugglers.
Go to the link to see the photos and the immigration documents included with this story. molly molloy

EL PASO – The boy was crying as federal agents ordered him into the government vehicle. Tell your mother goodbye, they said.

It was late October, and Blanca Vasquez and her 12-year-old son, Luis, had only been in the United States for a few hours. They had crossed the Rio Grande near El Paso, giving themselves up to Border Patrol agents to ask for asylum. A gang in El Salvador had murdered her husband, a military sergeant, and she said they were now after Luis.

For decades, hundreds of thousands of immigrant families from Central America, escaping gang violence and political persecution, have followed a similar path, relying on international treaties protecting those seeking asylum from being summarily turned away.

Vasquez figured she and Luis would be detained, or even released, while she fought for asylum. A 20-year-old federal settlement that bars the extended detention of migrant children would ensure they stayed together.

But that was then. This summer, the practice changed.

READ MORE: