Here is another take on the numbers from The Economist… Note that they give a figure of 5,037 murders for the first 4 months of 2012… very close to the estimate made by Walter McKay at: https://sites.google.com/site/policereform/narco-killings  (5,278) Basically, we can see about an average of 1,260 homicides per month… somewhat lower than peak periods in the past few years, but still high. At this rate, the number of murders for the year will be about 15,111—instead of the 20,000+ over the past few years.   Keep in mind that US homicides run about 15,000 per year and have been declining steadily over the past 5 years… And the US has about 3x the population of Mexico. A comparable murder rate in the US would produce 45,000-50,000 murders a year. molly

“The horror diverted attention from a rare drop in Mexico’s overall murder rate. The opening quarter of 2012 saw the first year-on-year fall in killings since the government’s assault on the gangs got going in 2007. The 5,037 murders (which include ordinary killings as well as mafia hits) represented a 7% drop compared with the same period last year, and a 17% decline compared with the worst three months of last summer. The government no longer breaks out mafia-linked murders, but *Reforma*, a newspaper, reckons that so far this year these are 10% down on last year.”