Mexico’s drug war Storm clouds with silver linings A series of choreographed horrors belies an overall drop in killings–The Economist

Here is another take on the numbers from The Economist… Note that they give a figure of 5,037 murders for the first 4 months of 2012… very close to the estimate made by Walter McKay at:  (5,278) Basically, we can see about an average of 1,260 homicides per month… somewhat lower than peak periods in the past few years, but still high. At this rate, the number of murders for the year will be about 15,111—instead of the 20,000+ over the past few years.   Keep in mind that US homicides run about 15,000 per year and have been declining steadily over the past 5 years… And the US has about 3x the population of Mexico. A comparable murder rate in the US would produce 45,000-50,000 murders a year. molly

“The horror diverted attention from a rare drop in Mexico’s overall murder rate. The opening quarter of 2012 saw the first year-on-year fall in killings since the government’s assault on the gangs got going in 2007. The 5,037 murders (which include ordinary killings as well as mafia hits) represented a 7% drop compared with the same period last year, and a 17% decline compared with the worst three months of last summer. The government no longer breaks out mafia-linked murders, but *Reforma*, a newspaper, reckons that so far this year these are 10% down on last year.”

About virginiaisaad

Virginia is a journalist based in Los Angeles who's written for publications including Los Angeles magazine, Upworthy, and Elite Daily. She was born in Argentina and raised in the San Fernando Valley along with her three siblings. Fun fact: She took a Chicanas and Feminism course with Eva Longoria while studying for her master's in mass communication at California State University, Northridge. Follow her on Twitter @virginiaisaad

One thought on “Mexico’s drug war Storm clouds with silver linings A series of choreographed horrors belies an overall drop in killings–The Economist

  1. an alternative headline from the economist could just as well have read:

    “drug war deaths: so what – they’re only mexicans.”

    aren’t bodies found in mass graves counted in the totals? won’t they be in the future as well?

    and how many deaths are not reported because they happen in remote desert locations in northern mexico and southern arizona?

    i can’t understand anyone trying to make the point that 5,037 murders is GOOD NEWS!

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