Below is an article from El Diario with a detailed critique of
Calderon’s claim that murders are down 57% in Juarez as repeated here
in the InSight Crime article. By my estimates, the percent of
decrease in the murders in Juarez is somewhere between 35% and 45%. In
order to be sure of a DECREASE in the number of murders, we have to
know WHICH homicides are being counted. I think it is more accurate to
report ALL homicides, not just those that the government claims are
“related to organized crime rivalries.” That number for Juarez for
2011 was reported to be 2,086. In the national statistics released in
January (the 47,500+ number of drug war murders up through Sept 2011),
the relationship to all homicides is somewhere between 45% and 55%
counted as drug war related. In some of the calculations I’ve seen,
the 2010 figure for ALL homicides is used in comparison to the much
lower figure of drug war related homicides for 9 months of 2011 and
the later number is reduced in several different ways and thus shows a
much greater percent of decrease than is likely to be true. In like
manner, it is hard to calculate how much the murder RATE (per 100,000
population) has decreased because we are not certain what the current
population of Juarez is. The murder rate is certainly down from what
it was in 2010, but the population is down also–we just do not know
how much. But using the government’s own claim that most of the
people killed are criminals, we realize that with the killing of more
than 10,000 people in the city since 2008, the possible population of
criminals to kill has been drastically reduced. As Julian Cardona
noted in his recent article, citing a “narco-mensaje” directed to
Mayor Murguia posted on January 4 2012:

“It is not because you have lowered the murder rate, rather it is
that there are no longer so many people to kill…how many of us were
here four years ago and how many inhabitants remain today?”
[full article with translation posted to frontera list on feb 7:
http://juarezdialoga.org/ls-articulistas/juarez-todavia-la-mas-violenta-del-mundo/]

Posted below is also an excerpt from Marcela Turati’s recent Proceso
article. In it she details the case of Mrs. Padilla Martinez’ children
brutally murdered in retaliation for her testimony in the
investigation of another of her sons who was murdered in police
custody.
http://www.diario.com.mx/notas.php?f=2012/01/09&id=20599350c4fcb3c7df75607e91fcfe2b
‘My children were killed in retaliation’, says mother of brothers
executed and burned
[the full article and translation were posted here on frontera list on
January 9]

Also, one of the witnesses to police chief Leyzaola beating prisoners
in the Juarez Cereso was Shohn Huckabee. The violence he witnessed was
reported in the EP Times in December and also here on the Frontera
List,
http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_19567204?source=most_viewed
Suspects: Juárez chief of police killed friend

Monday, 27 February 2012 12:00
The Dark Side to Juarez’s Security Gains
Written by Patrick Corcoran

Le fallan a Calderón las cuentas sobre homicidios
M. Coronado/R. Chaparro
El Diario | 18-02-2012 | 00:26
PROCESO–EXTRACT

La violenta “pacificación” de Juárez
Marcela Turati
18 de febrero de 2012 ·