Click here for an article from El Diario today that addresses this very point: while murder and other serious crime is down in Juarez and the rest of the “northern zone” of Chihuahua, it is on the rise in other parts of the state.
As I was driving home today and listening to the news about Todd Akin and “legitimate rape“…
The result of this, as pointed out by Molly, is that news media organizations have been reporting Mexico’s government figures without challenging the government, which means a reduction of the size of the impact on Mexican society. Instead of 50 or 60,000 drug-related killings, we should be talking about 100,000+. Think of Vietnam: 50,000 U.S. soldiers killed (and the impact on American society). Now, imagine double that size with a population half the size of the U.S. during Vietnam. Nobody in Mexico has remained untouched by this. And this is not the end yet… From Jose Luis Benavides
|INEGI total homicides reported Aug 2012*||INEGI total homicides reported July 2011+||SNSP|
|2012 (Jan-June estimate from SNSP)#||10,617|
|July-Dec est. @ 1770 per month||10,620|
|TOTAL 2007-2012 Calderon’s term||116,869||104,977 (estimate SNSP as per Reforma, Aug 15 2012 + July-Dec 2012 est.)&|
#As reported in Insight Crime 16 august 2012, http://www.insightcrime.org/insight-latest-news/item/3054-govt-to-release-data-on-crime-related-deaths-when-calderon-leaves-office
Yesterday, REFORMA reported that a spokesman for the federal government in Mexico stated that this administration will not release a new number of “homicides related to organized crime” before the end of Calderon’s sexenio. The main focus of the article is that this will not be done because the government cannot accurately determine the causes of the homicides. This is exactly what I have been saying consistently on this list and elsewhere for several years.
It’s like the domestic dispute next door that everyone is aware of but we all want to pretend its not happening. It really is strange.
New national database for homicides delayed
Agency Reform | 08.17.2012 | 22:24
Federal District-The new database that will store the numbers of intentional homicide and missing persons, which was negotiated by state attorneys and the Attorney General, has not been able to start walking.
The reasons for the delay of this new registration agreement over a year ago is that there is partial information, wrong or delay in delivering it.
An early start date for this database, set for May 12 was postponed and finally determined that as of June 15 would begin to flow data to concentrate on this record.
“The National Conference reaffirms its commitment to fulfill the mandate of the CNSP to establish databases nationally, for registration of intentional homicide and missing persons.
“For this, the law enforcement agencies are committed to providing complete records of these databases later than June 15 this year, expand, update and validate the respective information permanently,” said May 24 the entitled the PGR, Marisela Morales.
Federal District connection, Jaime Lopez-Aranda, head of the National Information Center of the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP), said that while the collection of information is substantial homicide, shall be at least one other months to complete the count. “The database of voluntary manslaughter is compiling the PGR will allow us to have more accurate data of victimology, for example, and not only the preliminary investigation, it secretes the victim’s age, sex of victim, location.
“We are really behind. Promised for June 15, I hope it comes out in September and October, because many entities provided information as we had to be delivered, then you should return it, “he said.
This new database and updated monthly to the SESNSP on its website will be the only references that citizens have about the violent murders occurred in the country.
Neither breaks down the number of executed by organized crime. (Agency Reform)
Several articles below on the recent upsurge in violence in Mexico. The LA Times reports on discrepancies in the numbers of homicides reported and not reported in recent weeks/months. A Reforma article from August 13 explicitly says that the government is “hiding the numbers.” This is one of the first articles I have seen in either the Mexican or US or international press that questions the government’s criteria for separating so-called “drug-related” or “organized crime related” homicides from the general tally of killings.
From the REFORMA piece ( I will try to post a complete translation later…):
“The lack of homicide investigations on the part of the state and federal authorities, the absence of coordination to determine which are linked to organized crime and which are pot, as well as a weak (feeble, flimsy) methodology, all are factors that obscure knowledge of the real number of homicides, say public security experts.”
“La falta de investigacion de los homicidios por parte de autoridades estatales y federales, la ausencia de coordinacion para determinar cuales estan vinculados al crimen organizado y cuales no, ademas de una metodologia endeble, son factores que impiden conocer la cifra real de ejecutados, opinan especialistas en seguridad publica. “
This is exactly the same point I have made many times on the Frontera List and most recently in this Phoenix New Times article.
Finally it is clearly stated in a major Mexican newspaper and it is beginning to be hinted at in the US press. Also, the LA Times piece is the only reference I have seen in the US press to the release of homicide data from state attorneys general reported last week in El Diario that revealed an actual homicide count of more than 83,000–MINUS any figures at all from 4 states and only counting through December 2011…. For that study, see here.
I have read and heard from Mexicans living in exile in the US much speculation that there will be an increase in violence as Calderon’s term comes to an end. The Proceso article makes this explicit. The person who sent the article to me points out the echo of what happened in Juarez from 2008-2011–that is–when the Mexican army, federal police and other security forces are deployed, the violence increases dramatically. I think that we are seeing evidence of this now in reports from Nuevo Leon, Durango, Veracruz and Mexico City. molly molloy
Here’s an article I missed in the El Paso Times (and yes, I was a source for some of the stuff in the article…) It is interesting that just today, El Diario has a story quoting a spokesman for the FGE (the Chihuahua State Attorney General) saying that organized crime related homicides were 60% of the total July homicides in the city… See this link.
I would clarify this one statement in the article:
“From 2006-2009 no record was found of any homicidios dolosos.” Chiapas appears only to have started counting in 2010.
INEGI data 2007-2010
101,203 + 5,189 = 106,392
El Diario reports 44 homicides in the month of July, another decrease from 49 in June. Diario gives a total of 580 for the year so far, but by the monthly tallies I have, I think a better figure is 584. This is an average of 2.7 murders each day in the city. Projecting that the downward trend continues and murders fall to 30 per month for the rest of the year, 2012 will end with more than 700 homicides. About 320 people were victims in 2007–the highest figure ever recorded in the city before the explosion of violence in 2008.
This figure is also consistent with a report an independent researcher got from an official at the Juarez morgue earlier this week–582. I believe that the discrepancy is due to how some crimes are categorized as “homicidios culposos” rather than dolosos… But I will report the number of 584 as I think it is more accurate.
Juarez Murders 1993-July 2012
Total 1993-2007 = 3,538 (0.7 per day)
2007 = 320
2008 = 1,623
2009 = 2,754
2010 = 3,622 (**)
2011 = 2,086
2012 = 584 (as of July 31)
Total killed since 2007 = 10,989
Total killed since 1993 = 14,527
Average of 6.3 people per day since Jan 2008
(**original media tally for 2010=3,111; March 2011 Fiscalia report = 3,951; Fiscalia spokesman gave new figure of 3,622 to Reuters reporter in October 2011)
MURDERS OF WOMEN
1993-2007………………427 (3,538) – 12%
2008 ……………………….87 (1,623) – 5.3%
2010 ………………………304 (3,622) – 8.3%
2011 …………………….. 196 (2,086) – 9.3%
2012 (as of July 31) ………73 (584) – 12.5%
Women…………1,251 ( 14,527 total victims) – 8.6%
Women = 8.6 percent
of total murder victims over the past 18 years
Statistics from El Diario based on official data from the Chihuahua State Attorney General
|2011||22,223+||14,000 (est. based on rate of decrease)|
|2012 (est. Jan-June)||10, 394|
|2012 (est. projection for year)||20,788||14,000 (est. based on rate of decrease)|
|Est. total homicides as of June 2012||99,667|
|Est. total homicides durig Calderon’s term of office||110, 061||91,740|
Posted above are numbers of actual homicides for Mexico as a whole reported by different agencies of the Mexican government. I can provide the links to the sources. Molly
Data from official Mexican statistical agency (INEGI) # and from the National System for Public Security (SNSP) +
U.S. homicides from FBI Uniform Crime Reports @
U.S. population– 311,591,917 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Mexico population– 112,336,538 Source: National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI)
This article in Norte de Ciudad Juarez says that the figure of 952 is for the STATE of Chihuahua, not just the city of Juarez. If the number is really 952 for the state and roughly 540 for the city (as reported by El Diario) then the city still accounts for more than half of all of the murders tallied in Chihuahua. Note also this article in InSight Crime–an analyst reports 510 “organized-crime-related” or “ejecuciones” for Juarez… It is still very confusing (actually I believe it is impossible) to realistically distinguish between those homicides counted as “organized crime related” vs. other homicides… The criteria are never clearly stated in any of the sources that report these numbers. The information comes from media accounts in almost all cases, according to the article in Insight… And those reports contain only the most superficial characteristics of the crimes scenes and the killings such as the type of weapon used, the number of people involved, etc. No real investigation is actually completed to determined who killed whom and why.